About the upcoming sea level rise, a brief summary.

It is now clear that the average sea level will rise by 59 cm at the very least by the end of the 21st century, causing massive relocation and the fear of new conflicts. The world will probably soon hear about the first climatic refugees. Refugees, exactly like in war. Although some scientists argue that the climate model the IPCC has been using for years is inaccurate because of crucial variables aren’t put into the calculations, producing inaccurate output results, a general consensus rose few weeks ago. Here is a summary of the latest trends.
Two years ago, in 2007, the IPCC (for International Panel on Climate Change) released an assessment report dealing with the warming of the world climate system. According to this report, among the myriad of global warming effects and impact in Earth, one particularly drew public’s attention. The IPCC forecasted a sea level rise by 18cm to 59cm by the end of the century. The sea levels are rising rise because of the arctic pole shrinkage, but actually it’s only a slight addition to melting glaciers and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica for the example. The reason is the ice carries its own weight and when partially submerged, relocates its own volume into water volume. But what is unequivocal is the glaciers shrinkage around the world. Latterly the UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) released a report dealing with shrinking glaciers. As IPCC pessimistic data, the UNEP reports made mention of a dramatic and significant ice thickness loss, especially going on in the European Alps. Michael Zemp, a glaciologist at the World Glacier Monitoring Service at the University of Zurich made it even clearer, the average ice loss trend is twice as fast as in the past decades. Météo France – the French weather office – released a report stating that the average global temperature has risen to 0,74 celsius degrees in the past century. Well this is not a dramatic figure. What is dramatic is the warming pace currently going on. According to Météo France, the warming pace is twice as important as in the last data samples, 1906 to 2005 time period. To sum up, a naive theory would be, considering the latest scientists’ calculations :

Global temperatures rising => significant glaciers and ice sheets thickness loss => significant rising sea levels.

Those imply long-term effects. Nobody can claim that the 2008 higher cyclones frequency in Northern Atlantic during the cyclonic season for example, is due global warming. Ice shrinkage and melting glaciers effects are going to stretch to next decades. What we have to bear in mind is the long-term impact actually. That what climate models coupled with analysis patchworked in connection with actual measurements since 1860 has made it clear as well. Only two years after the IPCC assessment report was issued, one other report from four international climate experts has been issued. This report deals with rising sea levels and it shows that sea levels are now rising twice as fast as predicted. The news made the cover of The Independent latterly in March 2009. It is interesting how this brand new report definitely backs the 2007 IPCC assessment report up. This is a key fact which has been reported as a wake-up call as the international conference held in Copenhagen in next December is fast approaching and is perceived as a new deadline for international policy makers, a new treaty would eventually be brought up in order to start over a brand new dedication to the environment and to drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions, a post-Kyoto protocol era basically with even more drastic policies.
As opposed to climate change trends, global policy makers don’t seem to be eager to end up the affluent society models, especially in ‘’developed’’ or ‘’industrialized countries ‘’ or ‘’more economically developed country’’ or whatever else. The profits for the profit’s sake is still the global stance with a few attention drawn to climate change. It’s like we’re still wondering either it’s an obvious threat or scientists’ obscure speculations only. Multiple reports issued in a large period time and echoing each past other show that it is now clear that climate change is an actual issue and maybe the most challenging issue of the 21st century.

Rising sea levels contemplation.

Credit : Yogan Muller.

Sources : the 2007 IPCC assessment report, Science, sciencedaily.com, The Met Office, Météo France, The Independent.